While international shipping accounts for over 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, there’s optimistic news emerging from the experts working to decarbonize this critical sector. According to a new study by IRES’s Imranul Laskar, Dr. Hadi Dowlatabadi and Dr. Amanda Giang, many experts in the shipping sector are confident in the possibility of meeting short-term carbon intensity targets by 2030—thanks to a mix of operational improvements, technological upgrades, and policy changes. However, the same experts caution that meeting the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is unlikely.
Shipping moves over 80% of global trade and its emissions contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas levels. Decarbonizing shipping is crucial not only for meeting international climate targets but also for reducing air pollution and thereby improving public health. And, a low-carbon shipping industry is essential for a just energy transition, supporting the long-term sustainability of global trade.
The researchers drew on insights from 149 global experts to outline the pathways and barriers to making the shipping industry more sustainable. Check out our Q&A with Laskar (he/him) and Giang (she/her) to learn more:
What makes shipping experts optimistic about decarbonization in the short-term?
Most experts in our study anticipate that the shipping industry is on track to meet the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2030 carbon intensity target—a 40% reduction relative to 2008 levels—which means a reduction in the amount of carbon dioxide emitted to ship cargo over a given distance. Experts are optimistic about the feasibility of short-term solutions, such as operational changes and technological upgrades.
Importantly, today the IMO approved new policies that could significantly reduce GHG emissions from shipping. These policies may include market-based mechanisms and a low GHG fuel standard, which could provide the financial incentive and policy certainty needed to shift towards cleaner technologies. Given the diverse membership of the IMO, decisions will require consensus, which means key countries like China, Japan, and the EU will play pivotal roles in shaping the future of shipping decarbonization. Leadership from countries that are shying away from sustainable practices—the US, for example—is not as relevant in this international sector.
Why is the long-term goal of net-zero carbon by 2050 harder to meet?
Experts do predict a 40-75% absolute reduction in emissions by 2050, but that still leaves a gap to the IMO’s net-zero goal. The key challenge is the shift to alternative fuels and energy. Experts are still not sure which fuels, such as hydrogen, ammonia, or biofuels, will dominate in the long term. There’s also the issue of infrastructure; building the necessary refueling and bunkering infrastructure for alternative fuels will take time. Retrofitting ships and upgrading technology to account for newer fuels are costly and may be difficult to implement across the entire fleet in time to meet future targets. Some experts believe the industry may adopt a more flexible approach, with ships being able to run on multiple types of fuels (hybrid propulsion), depending on availability and cost.
Other pieces need to come together for a very low emissions scenario, and it’s hard to be optimistic that every piece will fall into place without ambitious clean technology uptake and policy advances. Societal and political will are needed to drive a significant uptake of decarbonization measures, and we need collaboration from energy producers, port authorities, shipowners as well as cargo owners who want to green their supply chain.
What can policymakers and the industry do to speed up the decarbonization process?
Policymakers can help by implementing robust policy instruments, including a GHG pricing mechanism and low GHG fuel standard, providing subsidies for green technologies, and investing in alternative fuel infrastructure. With policy certainty, the shipping industry also needs to prioritize fleet overhauls and embrace new technologies. Collaboration between governments, industry leaders, and researchers is critical to identifying practical solutions and accelerating the transition to a low-carbon future.